Paul's Backgammon Vaults
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[pagetitle GNU (Intermediate) vs Paul (Indeterminate)] [gametitle The Great Escape!] [gameintro]
This game shows that in backgammon it really isn't over until it's over.
The game isn't just a remote theoretical possibility - it actually happened, with random dice rolls and both players (GNU and I) making plenty of "mistakes" according to GNU's expert-level analysis. I took quite a few hints from GNU, so I certainly can't claim all the credit.
Press 'Next' to start, and settle down for a marathon battle!
[/gameintro] [sourcetype GNU match] [playername1 GNU] [playername2 Paul] [horizl][povplr2][povclrw] [play][player2] [posID 14HPwATDgc/ABMA] [dice 23][move 24/21 13/11] [precomment]I get an unispiring 2 3 to start off with...[/precomment] [postcomment]... and go unerringly for GNU's second-best move.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 23 (+0.323%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply 13/11 13/10 MWC: 44.09% 50.9% 15.3% 0.8% - 49.1% 13.6% 0.7% * 2. Cubeful 0-ply 24/21 13/11 MWC: 44.04% ( -0.04%) 51.1% 13.8% 0.7% - 48.9% 13.3% 0.4% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 24/22 13/10 MWC: 43.99% ( -0.10%) 50.8% 14.0% 0.7% - 49.2% 13.5% 0.5% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 13/8 MWC: 43.65% ( -0.43%) 49.4% 13.9% 0.7% - 50.6% 13.9% 0.6% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 24/22 24/21 MWC: 43.65% ( -0.43%) 49.8% 12.3% 0.7% - 50.2% 13.3% 0.3% [/analysemove][/play] [play][player1] [posID 24HPkASLgc/ABMA] [dice 42][move 8/4* 6/4] [precomment]The dice quickly punish me for this, with 4 2.[/precomment] [postcomment]And GNU does the rest, sending me off for the first of many visits to the bar in this game.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 42 (+1.413%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 8/4* 6/4 MWC: 57.69% 54.8% 18.2% 0.9% - 45.2% 11.8% 0.5% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 24/20 6/4* MWC: 55.70% ( -1.99%) 48.2% 12.1% 0.6% - 51.8% 14.7% 0.6% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 13/9 6/4* MWC: 55.60% ( -2.09%) 47.9% 13.5% 0.6% - 52.1% 15.8% 1.0% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 24/22 8/4* MWC: 55.31% ( -2.38%) 46.6% 12.2% 0.5% - 53.4% 15.4% 0.6% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 24/20 13/11 MWC: 55.17% ( -2.52%) 46.1% 11.2% 0.4% - 53.9% 15.3% 0.5% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 56.24% (Money: -0.031) 48.9% 13.3% 0.4% - 51.1% 13.8% 0.7% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 55.96% 2. Double, pass 62.76% ( 6.81%) 3. Double, take 53.07% ( -2.89%) Proper cube action: No double, take (29.8%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1mGfwATDgc+QBUA] [dice 14][move bar/20] [precomment]Well at least it wasn't 6 4![/precomment] [postcomment]I get it right this time, opting for a builder on GNU's 5-point and avoiding any split-play heroics on my side of the board.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 14 (-0.365%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/20 MWC: 42.12% 44.5% 11.6% 0.6% - 55.5% 18.9% 0.8% 2. Cubeful 0-ply bar/24 13/9 MWC: 42.03% ( -0.09%) 43.5% 12.6% 0.7% - 56.5% 18.4% 1.3% 3. Cubeful 0-ply bar/24 11/7 MWC: 41.38% ( -0.74%) 41.3% 11.1% 0.5% - 58.7% 19.2% 1.4% 4. Cubeful 0-ply bar/24 8/4 MWC: 41.17% ( -0.95%) 40.8% 11.3% 0.6% - 59.2% 20.8% 1.8% 5. Cubeful 0-ply bar/24 6/2 MWC: 41.10% ( -1.02%) 40.5% 11.1% 0.6% - 59.5% 20.6% 1.7% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 42.46% (Money: -0.164) 45.2% 11.8% 0.5% - 54.8% 18.2% 0.9% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 42.31% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 7.69%) 3. Double, take 39.58% ( -2.73%) Proper cube action: No double, take (26.2%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 24HPkASGYZ/ABMA] [dice 21][move 6/5*/3] [precomment]The dice punish me again though (this always seems to happen to me!), and if GNU's awake I'm soon going to be back on the bar.[/precomment] [postcomment]And so I am, although GNU, playing in Intermediate mode, only manages its own third choice when analysed from Expert level.
It's left me a nice target on its 3-point. All I need now is a 3 2 roll, and things will be looking good.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 21 (-0.551%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply 13/11 6/5* MWC: 57.68% 55.3% 18.5% 1.0% - 44.7% 13.0% 0.8% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 24/22 6/5* MWC: 57.48% ( -0.21%) 54.4% 16.9% 0.9% - 45.6% 12.4% 0.5% * 3. Cubeful 0-ply 6/5*/3 MWC: 56.92% ( -0.76%) 52.2% 16.7% 0.9% - 47.8% 13.4% 0.8% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 6/5* 6/4 MWC: 56.70% ( -0.99%) 51.6% 16.1% 0.8% - 48.4% 13.8% 0.8% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 24/21 MWC: 56.69% ( -0.99%) 51.5% 13.4% 0.5% - 48.5% 11.8% 0.3% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 57.68% (Money: +0.186) 55.5% 18.9% 0.8% - 44.5% 11.6% 0.6% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 57.88% 2. Double, pass 62.76% ( 4.88%) 3. Double, take 56.34% ( -1.54%) Proper cube action: No double, take (24.0%) Alert: bad move (-0.765%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1NGfwATDgc+QBUA] [dice 52][move bar/20 24/22*] [precomment]Well, 5 2 isn't bad, and it's about time GNU tasted life in the middle of the board.[/precomment] [postcomment]So off it goes, and although I'm slipping behind a bit in the pip count race, I'm not unhappy with my position in GNU's home table.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 52 (+1.248%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/20 24/22* MWC: 44.70% 53.3% 15.9% 1.1% - 46.7% 12.8% 0.5% 2. Cubeful 0-ply bar/20 13/11 MWC: 42.83% ( -1.87%) 47.3% 13.0% 0.8% - 52.7% 18.6% 0.7% 3. Cubeful 0-ply bar/23 13/8 MWC: 42.37% ( -2.33%) 45.3% 13.1% 0.8% - 54.7% 19.6% 0.9% 4. Cubeful 0-ply bar/20 11/9 MWC: 42.19% ( -2.52%) 44.8% 12.5% 0.7% - 55.2% 20.0% 0.9% 5. Cubeful 0-ply bar/23 11/6 MWC: 42.02% ( -2.68%) 43.9% 12.1% 0.6% - 56.1% 19.2% 0.8% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 43.03% (Money: -0.079) 47.8% 13.4% 0.8% - 52.2% 16.7% 0.9% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 43.08% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 6.92%) 3. Double, take 40.78% ( -2.30%) Proper cube action: No double, take (24.9%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 24HPkAQmYM/gAWA] [dice 11][move bar/22 24/23] [precomment]Oops! GNU can dispatch two of my pieces to the bar with this, at the risk of a home-table blot. That's its own expert-level advice, too - but will it take it?[/precomment] [postcomment]The answer's no - instead, GNU opts to string its pieces out across my home table. Is it trying to tempt me into something rash? Surely it knows me better than that!
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 11 (+0.353%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/24 6/5*/3* MWC: 56.31% 50.7% 16.3% 0.9% - 49.3% 16.2% 1.4% 2. Cubeful 0-ply bar/24 6/5* 4/3*(2) MWC: 56.15% ( -0.16%) 50.1% 16.3% 0.9% - 49.9% 16.5% 1.4% 3. Cubeful 0-ply bar/23 6/5*/4 MWC: 55.77% ( -0.53%) 48.2% 13.9% 0.6% - 51.8% 14.9% 0.9% 4. Cubeful 0-ply bar/22 6/5* MWC: 55.77% ( -0.54%) 49.1% 13.4% 0.6% - 50.9% 16.3% 1.2% 5. Cubeful 0-ply bar/23 24/23 6/5* MWC: 55.67% ( -0.63%) 48.6% 13.5% 0.5% - 51.4% 16.5% 1.0% * 10. Cubeful 0-ply bar/22 24/23 MWC: 55.20% ( -1.11%) 46.1% 11.6% 0.4% - 53.9% 14.9% 0.6% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 55.76% (Money: -0.102) 46.7% 12.8% 0.5% - 53.3% 15.9% 1.1% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 55.30% 2. Double, pass 62.76% ( 7.47%) 3. Double, take 51.95% ( -3.34%) Proper cube action: No double, take (30.9%) Alert: very bad move (-1.109%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1mDP4ACrgc+QBCQ] [dice 52][move 22/20 13/8] [precomment]A sharpshooter would be drawn to [demo]8/3 3/1[/demo], but GNU doesn't rate that at all.
As for me, I'm far too sensible for that sort of thing, and realise that staking out GNU's 5-point is more important than taking big risks to make low-value hits in my home table.[/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 52 (+0.129%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply 22/20 11/6 MWC: 45.68% 57.6% 14.3% 0.6% - 42.4% 8.5% 0.1% * 2. Cubeful 0-ply 22/20 13/8 MWC: 45.58% ( -0.10%) 56.8% 14.5% 0.7% - 43.2% 8.1% 0.2% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 22/20 6/1* MWC: 44.87% ( -0.81%) 53.9% 14.0% 0.6% - 46.1% 9.5% 0.2% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 20/15 13/11 MWC: 44.38% ( -1.30%) 53.2% 13.3% 0.7% - 46.8% 13.9% 0.3% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 13/11 13/8 MWC: 44.31% ( -1.36%) 52.2% 14.9% 0.8% - 47.8% 13.8% 0.4% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 44.32% (Money: +0.115) 53.9% 14.9% 0.6% - 46.1% 11.6% 0.4% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 44.80% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 5.20%) 3. Double, take 43.45% ( -1.35%) Proper cube action: No double, take (20.7%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 24PPIAQOYM/gAKg] [dice 44][move 24/16 22/14*] [precomment]Well so much for theory! If I'd played that 8/5*/1* then GNU wouldn't have ben able to touch me.
As it is, my builder on GNU's 14-point (which, to be honest, I'd forgotten about!) is now at risk.[/precomment] [postcomment]Again, GNU Expert doesn't rate GNU Intermediate's move very highly, but I'm on the bar again anyway.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 44 (+2.274%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply 22/14* 13/9(2) MWC: 57.51% 56.3% 10.5% 0.3% - 43.7% 10.6% 0.3% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 24/20 22/14*/10 MWC: 56.86% ( -0.65%) 53.6% 9.5% 0.2% - 46.4% 11.1% 0.3% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 22/14*/6 MWC: 56.67% ( -0.84%) 52.4% 10.4% 0.2% - 47.6% 11.3% 0.3% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 24/20 22/14* 13/9 MWC: 56.53% ( -0.98%) 52.3% 9.9% 0.3% - 47.7% 12.2% 0.4% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 22/14*/10 13/9 MWC: 56.46% ( -1.05%) 51.8% 10.8% 0.3% - 48.2% 12.6% 0.5% * 6. Cubeful 0-ply 24/16 22/14* MWC: 56.45% ( -1.06%) 52.6% 8.1% 0.2% - 47.4% 12.5% 0.3% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 55.07% (Money: -0.206) 43.2% 8.1% 0.2% - 56.8% 14.5% 0.7% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 54.42% 2. Double, pass 62.76% ( 8.35%) 3. Double, take 50.51% ( -3.91%) Proper cube action: No double, take (31.9%) Alert: very bad move (-1.063%) Alert: lucky roll! (+2.274%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1mDP4EhDg8+CAQQ] [dice 23][move bar/22 13/11*] [precomment]2 3 isn't normally the most exciting of rolls, but I can see something useful to do with this one.[/precomment] [postcomment]There - I'll have my 11-point back, thank you!
With a bit of luck GNU won't roll a 2 and send me straight back onto the bar.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 23 (+0.225%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/22 13/11* MWC: 44.15% 50.5% 13.9% 0.6% - 49.5% 9.9% 0.3% 2. Cubeful 0-ply bar/20 MWC: 43.85% ( -0.30%) 49.2% 10.5% 0.2% - 50.8% 6.6% 0.1% 3. Cubeful 0-ply bar/22 8/6 MWC: 43.33% ( -0.83%) 46.8% 11.1% 0.3% - 53.2% 7.9% 0.1% 4. Cubeful 0-ply bar/23 8/5 MWC: 43.01% ( -1.14%) 45.9% 11.5% 0.3% - 54.1% 10.3% 0.3% 5. Cubeful 0-ply bar/22 6/4 MWC: 43.01% ( -1.15%) 45.8% 11.0% 0.3% - 54.2% 9.7% 0.3% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 43.56% (Money: -0.007) 47.4% 12.5% 0.3% - 52.6% 8.1% 0.2% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 43.55% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 6.45%) 3. Double, take 41.31% ( -2.24%) Proper cube action: No double, take (25.7%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 24PPIgAmYM/gISA] [dice 45][move bar/21 13/8] [precomment]No 2 for GNU, so my outfield builder is safe for this roll.[/precomment] [postcomment]I like to think that I'd have seen GNU Expert's first-choice bar/21 21/16, but I probably wouldn't. I'd have gone for 13/8 too.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 45 (-0.184%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/16 MWC: 56.25% 51.9% 8.4% 0.1% - 48.1% 13.6% 0.2% * 2. Cubeful 0-ply bar/21 13/8 MWC: 55.76% ( -0.48%) 49.6% 10.1% 0.3% - 50.4% 15.2% 0.5% 3. Cubeful 0-ply bar/21 16/11 MWC: 55.54% ( -0.70%) 48.6% 9.4% 0.3% - 51.4% 15.1% 0.5% 4. Cubeful 0-ply bar/21 23/18 MWC: 55.12% ( -1.12%) 47.7% 8.6% 0.3% - 52.3% 17.4% 0.6% 5. Cubeful 0-ply bar/21 8/3* MWC: 55.01% ( -1.23%) 47.0% 10.9% 0.5% - 53.0% 18.2% 1.2% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 56.07% (Money: -0.052) 49.5% 9.9% 0.3% - 50.5% 13.9% 0.6% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 55.85% 2. Double, pass 62.76% ( 6.92%) 3. Double, take 52.92% ( -2.92%) Proper cube action: No double, take (29.7%) Alert: doubtful move (-0.481%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1mHPwCBLg88iACQ] [dice 24][move 8/4* 6/4] [precomment]Are things beginning to go my way? [/precomment] [postcomment]Thanks very much dice, and off to the bar with you, GNU!
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 24 (+0.943%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 8/4* 6/4 MWC: 45.75% 56.0% 18.6% 0.9% - 44.0% 8.5% 0.2% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 11/9* 8/4* MWC: 44.82% ( -0.94%) 53.0% 17.1% 1.0% - 47.0% 11.6% 0.4% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 13/9* 6/4* MWC: 44.73% ( -1.02%) 52.7% 17.6% 1.1% - 47.3% 12.8% 0.6% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 13/9* 11/9 MWC: 44.38% ( -1.38%) 51.6% 13.8% 0.6% - 48.4% 9.7% 0.2% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 13/11 13/9* MWC: 44.26% ( -1.50%) 51.0% 13.9% 0.6% - 49.0% 10.1% 0.2% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 44.00% (Money: +0.062) 50.4% 15.2% 0.5% - 49.6% 10.1% 0.3% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 44.24% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 5.76%) 3. Double, take 42.47% ( -1.77%) Proper cube action: No double, take (23.5%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2mOfIgAmYc/AISA] [dice 55][move bar/20 13/3* 8/3] [precomment]As an inexpert player I can't see instantly what this roll does for GNU, but I sense that a double 5 must give it the chance to cause some trouble. Evidently things aren't going quite as much my way as I'd hoped. [/precomment] [postcomment]Ah yes, that's it - capture another home-table point and send me off to the bar in the process!
Seeing 13/3 was the clincher for making this a really good move.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 55 (+2.886%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/20 13/3* 8/3 MWC: 57.56% 55.7% 15.1% 0.6% - 44.3% 12.7% 0.5% 2. Cubeful 0-ply bar/20 8/3*(3) MWC: 56.55% ( -1.00%) 51.6% 15.2% 0.6% - 48.4% 15.0% 0.7% 3. Cubeful 0-ply bar/20 16/11 8/3*(2) MWC: 56.45% ( -1.10%) 51.7% 14.3% 0.6% - 48.3% 15.4% 0.9% 4. Cubeful 0-ply bar/20 23/18 8/3*(2) MWC: 56.23% ( -1.33%) 51.5% 14.1% 0.6% - 48.5% 17.2% 1.1% 5. Cubeful 0-ply bar/15 8/3*(2) MWC: 56.02% ( -1.54%) 50.7% 13.5% 0.6% - 49.3% 17.4% 1.1% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 54.91% (Money: -0.228) 44.0% 8.5% 0.2% - 56.0% 18.6% 0.9% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 54.25% 2. Double, pass 62.76% ( 8.52%) 3. Double, take 50.20% ( -4.04%) Proper cube action: No double, take (32.2%) Alert: lucky roll! (+2.886%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1bM7gCBGY58iAQQ] [dice 24][move bar/23 13/9*] [precomment]To be honest I'm glad to be straight back on, now that GNU's got 3 points covered. I can see a bonus here, too.[/precomment] [postcomment]GNU recommends 6/2* as the hit here, but I not very brave with these home-table shots (it's a weakness). Of course GNU was right, as I've left two outfield blots now, with direct shots at them from GNU's piece on my 5-point.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 24 (-0.867%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/23 6/2* MWC: 42.03% 43.2% 12.7% 0.5% - 56.8% 17.8% 1.0% * 2. Cubeful 0-ply bar/23 13/9* MWC: 42.00% ( -0.03%) 43.5% 13.2% 0.7% - 56.5% 19.5% 1.3% 3. Cubeful 0-ply bar/23 11/7 MWC: 41.54% ( -0.49%) 41.3% 10.7% 0.4% - 58.7% 17.1% 0.7% 4. Cubeful 0-ply bar/23 8/4 MWC: 41.40% ( -0.62%) 40.7% 10.8% 0.4% - 59.3% 17.3% 0.7% 5. Cubeful 0-ply bar/23 20/16 MWC: 37.24% ( -4.79%) 33.5% 9.5% 0.4% - 66.5% 36.4% 3.5% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 42.65% (Money: -0.140) 44.3% 12.7% 0.5% - 55.7% 15.1% 0.6% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 42.44% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 7.56%) 3. Double, take 39.68% ( -2.76%) Proper cube action: No double, take (26.8%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2mOeSgBFszuCASA] [dice 55][move bar/20 23/8] [precomment]GNU comes off the bar with 5 5 again. Luckily that leaves both my blots safe.[/precomment] [postcomment]A 15-point move - now I wish I could see them like that!
This one (23/8) is particularly good. It's left GNU with a nice solid high anchor on my 5-point, and some ammunition for moves on its home table. Oh dear!
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 55 (+1.162%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/20 23/8 MWC: 59.56% 64.1% 12.2% 0.3% - 35.9% 5.8% 0.1% 2. Cubeful 0-ply bar/20 23/13 6/1 MWC: 58.42% ( -1.14%) 59.3% 11.6% 0.3% - 40.7% 7.7% 0.1% 3. Cubeful 0-ply bar/20 13/8(3) MWC: 58.14% ( -1.42%) 57.0% 12.7% 0.3% - 43.0% 6.8% 0.1% 4. Cubeful 0-ply bar/15 20/15 13/8 MWC: 57.97% ( -1.59%) 58.5% 12.9% 0.3% - 41.5% 12.3% 0.3% 5. Cubeful 0-ply bar/20 23/18 13/3 MWC: 57.92% ( -1.64%) 56.3% 13.6% 0.4% - 43.7% 8.6% 0.2% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 57.76% (Money: +0.198) 56.5% 19.5% 1.3% - 43.5% 13.2% 0.7% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 58.00% 2. Double, pass 62.76% ( 4.76%) 3. Double, take 56.54% ( -1.46%) Proper cube action: No double, take (23.5%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1bM7BAQOY55KAEQ] [dice 26][move 13/11 9/3] [precomment]With four blots on the table I'm not going to be able to tidy up my position in a single roll, but this one lets me fix three of them.[/precomment] [postcomment]That's better. I'm still behind, but things aren't quite as uneven as they were a couple of rolls ago.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 26 (+0.669%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 13/11 9/3 MWC: 41.86% 41.6% 7.5% 0.2% - 58.4% 10.0% 0.2% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 13/7 11/9 MWC: 40.99% ( -0.87%) 38.3% 7.1% 0.1% - 61.7% 12.6% 0.3% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 13/7 9/7 MWC: 40.96% ( -0.90%) 38.2% 6.8% 0.1% - 61.8% 12.3% 0.3% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 13/11 8/2 MWC: 40.60% ( -1.26%) 37.0% 7.3% 0.2% - 63.0% 14.5% 0.5% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 11/9 8/2 MWC: 40.38% ( -1.48%) 36.2% 7.0% 0.1% - 63.8% 15.0% 0.5% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 41.31% (Money: -0.348) 35.9% 5.8% 0.1% - 64.1% 12.2% 0.3% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 40.44% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 9.56%) 3. Double, take 36.45% ( -3.99%) Proper cube action: No double, take (29.5%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2NM8xgBFszsEBAw] [dice 45][move 13/9 8/3] [precomment]3 blots cleared, but that fourth still exposed. Will GNU hit me with this one?[/precomment] [postcomment]No - and there wouldn't have been much point.
I think this move looks pretty good, although GNU Expert marks it down to fourth place, probably because the 9-point blot is vulnerable, and the extra 3-point piece too deep into GNU's home table (and thus less flexible).
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 45 (-0.084%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply 13/4 MWC: 58.83% 61.0% 12.0% 0.2% - 39.0% 7.1% 0.1% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 20/16 20/15 MWC: 58.18% ( -0.65%) 60.4% 9.4% 0.2% - 39.6% 11.1% 0.2% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 13/8 6/2* MWC: 58.10% ( -0.74%) 57.8% 11.5% 0.2% - 42.2% 8.0% 0.2% * 4. Cubeful 0-ply 13/9 8/3 MWC: 58.09% ( -0.74%) 57.3% 12.6% 0.3% - 42.7% 7.9% 0.2% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 8/4 6/1 MWC: 57.97% ( -0.86%) 57.5% 11.4% 0.2% - 42.5% 8.7% 0.1% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 57.67% (Money: +0.193) 58.4% 10.0% 0.2% - 41.6% 7.5% 0.2% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 58.14% 2. Double, pass 62.76% ( 4.62%) 3. Double, take 56.86% ( -1.29%) Proper cube action: No double, take (21.7%) Alert: bad move (-0.741%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 13JyFAQM0zzGAEQ] [dice 11][move 8/6 8/7(2)] [precomment]1 1 rules out any movement on GNU's side of the board, so I'll have to think of something constructive on my side.[/precomment] [postcomment]I'm not quite sure why I did that, but at least it didn't do any harm...
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 11 (-0.922%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply 11/9(2) MWC: 41.72% 41.3% 7.7% 0.2% - 58.7% 11.3% 0.3% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 8/7(3) 4/3 MWC: 41.64% ( -0.08%) 41.2% 7.9% 0.2% - 58.8% 12.4% 0.3% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 8/7(3) 3/2 MWC: 41.56% ( -0.16%) 40.8% 7.8% 0.2% - 59.2% 12.3% 0.3% * 4. Cubeful 0-ply 8/6 8/7(2) MWC: 41.52% ( -0.20%) 40.6% 7.8% 0.2% - 59.4% 12.4% 0.3% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 11/10(2) 8/6 MWC: 41.50% ( -0.22%) 40.5% 7.6% 0.2% - 59.5% 12.0% 0.3% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 42.30% (Money: -0.194) 42.7% 7.9% 0.2% - 57.3% 12.6% 0.3% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 41.91% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 8.09%) 3. Double, take 38.83% ( -3.08%) Proper cube action: No double, take (27.6%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2NN8wgBHcnIUBAw] [dice 15][move 13/8 9/8] [precomment]Will GNU resist the temptation to hit this time?[/precomment] [postcomment]I think even I would have gone for the hit here, given the open state of my home table. Loading up the 8-point would have been my last choice, although GNU rates it second.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 15 (-0.400%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply 9/4 3/2* MWC: 58.98% 61.2% 14.0% 0.3% - 38.8% 7.6% 0.1% * 2. Cubeful 0-ply 13/8 9/8 MWC: 58.79% ( -0.18%) 60.4% 11.8% 0.2% - 39.6% 5.9% 0.1% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 13/12 9/4 MWC: 58.50% ( -0.48%) 58.8% 13.3% 0.3% - 41.2% 7.1% 0.1% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 13/8 3/2* MWC: 58.35% ( -0.62%) 58.8% 12.9% 0.3% - 41.2% 8.5% 0.3% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 9/3 MWC: 58.31% ( -0.66%) 58.6% 12.7% 0.2% - 41.4% 8.5% 0.1% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 57.95% (Money: +0.234) 59.4% 12.4% 0.3% - 40.6% 7.8% 0.2% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 58.48% 2. Double, pass 62.76% ( 4.28%) 3. Double, take 57.42% ( -1.06%) Proper cube action: No double, take (19.8%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 13JwHAQM03zCAEQ] [dice 62][move 20/12*] [precomment]I'm no expert (had you noticed?), but I can see that with only 20 pips in it, there's still the option to choose between a back and running game. [/precomment] [postcomment]There - I can spot those long-range moves sometimes!
With one leap I've ejected GNU from my outfield, and am poised to play an attacking strategy. All I need is some luck with GNU's next roll...
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 62 (-1.121%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 20/12* MWC: 41.12% 42.9% 9.3% 0.3% - 57.1% 24.9% 1.3% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 11/3 MWC: 40.62% ( -0.50%) 37.1% 6.8% 0.1% - 62.9% 14.0% 0.3% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 7/1 3/1 MWC: 40.09% ( -1.04%) 35.1% 7.0% 0.1% - 64.9% 16.1% 0.3% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 7/1 6/4 MWC: 38.98% ( -2.14%) 32.9% 6.8% 0.1% - 67.1% 19.0% 0.6% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 7/1 4/2 MWC: 37.24% ( -3.89%) 28.7% 5.8% 0.1% - 71.3% 23.3% 0.9% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 41.83% (Money: -0.267) 39.6% 5.9% 0.1% - 60.4% 11.8% 0.2% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 41.21% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 8.79%) 3. Double, take 37.70% ( -3.51%) Proper cube action: No double, take (28.5%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2NN+wABHcnAeAQQ] [dice 33][move bar/22* 20/17 8/5*(2)] [precomment]Aargh! This always happens to me! This is the third time GNU's rolled a double to return from the bar, and the second time it's going to cost me dearly.[/precomment] [postcomment]A return hit would have been fair enough, but two hits and a fourth point closed in GNU's home table is cruel.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 33 (+6.428%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/22* 20/17 8/5*(2) MWC: 65.86% 84.4% 59.0% 9.3% - 15.6% 3.0% 0.1% 2. Cubeful 0-ply bar/22* 8/5*(3) MWC: 65.60% ( -0.26%) 83.1% 59.0% 7.5% - 16.9% 3.2% 0.1% 3. Cubeful 0-ply bar/22* 8/5*(2) 6/3 MWC: 64.79% ( -1.06%) 80.1% 52.6% 6.6% - 19.9% 3.5% 0.1% 4. Cubeful 0-ply bar/22* 20/17 8/5*/2* MWC: 64.04% ( -1.81%) 75.6% 50.7% 7.3% - 24.4% 6.2% 0.3% 5. Cubeful 0-ply bar/22* 8/5*/2* 8/5 MWC: 63.34% ( -2.52%) 72.5% 46.1% 5.9% - 27.5% 6.8% 0.2% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 58.53% (Money: +0.308) 57.1% 24.9% 1.3% - 42.9% 9.3% 0.3% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 58.88% 2. Double, pass 62.76% ( 3.89%) 3. Double, take 58.02% ( -0.86%) Proper cube action: No double, take (18.1%) Alert: very lucky roll! (+6.428%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 13HYGEAmYb1gAZA] [dice 56] [precomment]Not unexpected. I don't know the exact maths, but once a fourth point gets closed then the difficulty of getting back on seems to rise disproportionately.[/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 56 (-1.699%): * Cannot move [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 34.53% (Money: -1.340) 15.6% 3.0% 0.1% - 84.4% 59.0% 9.3% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 34.14% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 15.86%) 3. Double, take 24.80% ( -9.34%) Proper cube action: No double, take (37.1%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2mG9YAGTcdgYQCQ] [dice 56][move 20/15 8/2*] [precomment]GNU can hit me again ([demo]8/2[/demo]), but will it bother?
Probably, because with three of my pieces on the bar, and my own home table wide open, it won't lose much even if I miraculously roll a double 2 to get back on. [/precomment] [postcomment]OK, it just gets worse. With three on the bar, an open home table, and your opponent shaping up to close you out completely, you know the game is slipping away from you...
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 56 (+0.001%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 20/15 8/2* MWC: 67.70% 89.0% 72.1% 16.3% - 11.0% 2.5% 0.1% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 22/17 8/2* MWC: 67.47% ( -0.23%) 88.8% 71.3% 13.6% - 11.2% 2.3% 0.1% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 17/12 8/2* MWC: 66.86% ( -0.84%) 86.7% 68.0% 11.5% - 13.3% 2.7% 0.1% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 22/16 20/15 MWC: 66.79% ( -0.91%) 88.8% 64.3% 9.3% - 11.2% 1.6% 0.0% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 20/15 17/11 MWC: 66.50% ( -1.20%) 87.4% 62.8% 9.5% - 12.6% 2.1% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 66.76% (Money: +1.526) 87.4% 69.8% 10.1% - 12.6% 2.0% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 67.02% 2. Double, take 77.02% ( 10.00%) 3. Double, pass 62.76% ( -4.25%) Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (29.8%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1uu0EJAiYb1gAcA] [dice 14][move bar/24] [precomment]Better than nothing (which would have been easy to roll), but I've still got two on the bar.[/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 14 (-0.856%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/24 MWC: 32.10% 9.7% 1.6% 0.0% - 90.3% 73.8% 14.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 32.50% (Money: -1.638) 11.0% 2.5% 0.1% - 89.0% 72.1% 16.3% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 32.30% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 17.70%) 3. Double, take 20.79% (-11.51%) Proper cube action: No double, take (39.4%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2mG9YAGi67QQkCA] [dice 16][move 17/16 8/2] [precomment][demo]8/7 7/1[/demo] would send me back to the bar again, but leave two blots. Perhaps GNU will leave me alone this time.[/precomment] [postcomment]58 pips behind, two on the bar, and one point to aim at. It doesn't look good, does it?
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 16 (-0.175%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply 22/16 3/2 MWC: 68.45% 93.1% 75.4% 15.1% - 6.9% 0.6% 0.0% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 8/2 6/5 MWC: 68.33% ( -0.12%) 92.1% 74.3% 16.8% - 7.9% 1.1% 0.0% * 3. Cubeful 0-ply 17/16 8/2 MWC: 68.30% ( -0.15%) 92.1% 74.2% 16.2% - 7.9% 1.0% 0.0% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 8/2 3/2 MWC: 68.22% ( -0.23%) 91.2% 74.3% 16.7% - 8.8% 1.2% 0.0% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 15/9 3/2 MWC: 68.01% ( -0.44%) 91.5% 73.1% 14.0% - 8.5% 1.1% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 67.72% (Money: +1.669) 90.3% 73.8% 14.0% - 9.7% 1.6% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 67.90% 2. Double, take 79.29% ( 11.40%) 3. Double, pass 62.76% ( -5.13%) Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (31.0%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1dtsBFAiYb1gAaA] [dice 16][move bar/24] [precomment]Another piece on - in the present circumstances I count that as lucky! [/precomment] [postcomment]At least I've got an anchor to land on now.
As for strategy, I seem to playing a back game, whether I like it or not.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 16 (+1.834%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/24 MWC: 34.21% 15.7% 1.6% 0.0% - 84.3% 55.5% 10.6% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 31.84% (Money: -1.736) 7.9% 1.0% 0.0% - 92.1% 74.2% 16.2% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 31.70% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 18.30%) 3. Double, take 19.34% (-12.36%) Proper cube action: No double, take (40.3%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2mG9YAFh22wEUCA] [dice 11][move 16/15 6/4 3/2] [precomment]Not what GNU wanted, especially with my blot on its 13-point.[/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 11 (-1.038%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply 6/2 MWC: 64.91% 81.2% 50.3% 8.3% - 18.8% 2.9% 0.1% * 2. Cubeful 0-ply 16/15 6/4 3/2 MWC: 64.81% ( -0.11%) 81.5% 48.9% 7.2% - 18.5% 2.6% 0.0% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 16/15 6/3 MWC: 64.60% ( -0.31%) 80.6% 47.4% 7.0% - 19.4% 2.8% 0.0% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 16/15 6/5(3) MWC: 62.41% ( -2.50%) 69.9% 34.7% 3.5% - 30.1% 6.0% 0.1% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 16/15 5/3 5/4 MWC: 62.29% ( -2.62%) 69.0% 34.5% 3.3% - 31.0% 6.1% 0.1% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 65.40% (Money: +1.332) 84.3% 55.5% 10.6% - 15.7% 1.6% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 65.79% 2. Double, take 74.10% ( 8.31%) 3. Double, pass 62.76% ( -3.03%) Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (26.7%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1brcBDAiYb1gAWA] [dice 54] [precomment]Well, my 1-point luck had to run out some time![/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 54 (-0.635%): * Cannot move [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 35.75% (Money: -1.164) 18.5% 2.6% 0.0% - 81.5% 48.9% 7.2% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 35.19% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 14.81%) 3. Double, take 27.05% ( -8.14%) Proper cube action: No double, take (35.5%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2mG9YAFhutwEMCA] [dice 66][move 22/4 15/9] [precomment]Defeat's beginning look inevitable for me now, and this maximum roll for GNU will hasten a merciful end.[/precomment] [postcomment]I can't see why GNU chose that one, when it could have put all its pieces safe. I've only got one piece on the bar now, so a 1 1 or 1 2 would give me a hit next time.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 66 (+0.139%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply 22/10 15/9(2) MWC: 65.44% 83.0% 54.8% 6.5% - 17.0% 0.4% 0.0% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 22/10 15/3 MWC: 65.39% ( -0.04%) 82.6% 54.8% 7.0% - 17.4% 0.8% 0.0% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 22/16 15/3 15/9 MWC: 65.32% ( -0.12%) 81.9% 54.6% 7.3% - 18.1% 0.8% 0.0% * 4. Cubeful 0-ply 22/4 15/9 MWC: 65.23% ( -0.21%) 81.8% 53.5% 7.0% - 18.2% 0.7% 0.0% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 15/3(2) MWC: 64.12% ( -1.31%) 76.0% 48.1% 5.7% - 24.0% 1.9% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 64.92% (Money: +1.261) 83.0% 53.5% 8.7% - 17.0% 2.0% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 65.38% 2. Double, take 72.99% ( 7.62%) 3. Double, pass 62.76% ( -2.62%) Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (25.6%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1bm8jEACYb1gAWA] [dice 52] [precomment]GNU's previous move didn't matter, since I'm not going anywhere this time. [/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 52 (-0.772%): * Cannot move [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 35.25% (Money: -1.234) 18.2% 0.7% 0.0% - 81.8% 53.5% 7.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 34.77% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 15.23%) 3. Double, take 26.37% ( -8.40%) Proper cube action: No double, take (35.5%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2mG9YAFhubyMQAA] [dice 12][move 15/13* 4/3] [precomment]Oh dear, I can see another hit coming![/precomment] [postcomment]OK, that just about sews it up, doesn't it?
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 12 (+0.283%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 15/13* 4/3 MWC: 66.14% 81.2% 63.8% 12.2% - 18.8% 0.4% 0.0% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 15/13*/12 MWC: 66.13% ( -0.01%) 81.2% 63.1% 12.6% - 18.8% 0.3% 0.0% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 15/13* 9/8 MWC: 65.98% ( -0.17%) 80.5% 62.5% 12.0% - 19.5% 0.4% 0.0% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 9/6 MWC: 65.37% ( -0.77%) 82.2% 54.6% 7.3% - 17.8% 0.5% 0.0% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 9/7 4/3 MWC: 65.19% ( -0.96%) 80.9% 54.6% 6.8% - 19.1% 1.0% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 65.10% (Money: +1.284) 82.7% 55.7% 7.7% - 17.3% 0.4% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 65.53% 2. Double, take 73.35% ( 7.82%) 3. Double, pass 62.76% ( -2.77%) Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (26.1%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 17m4jBACYbxgAbA] [dice 34] [precomment]They do say that 100 point behind is the ideal position from which to play a back game.
Well, here I am...[/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 34 (-0.202%): * Cannot move [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 34.22% (Money: -1.379) 18.8% 0.4% 0.0% - 81.2% 63.8% 12.2% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 33.86% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 16.14%) 3. Double, take 24.96% ( -8.90%) Proper cube action: No double, take (35.5%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2mG8YAGzubiMEAA] [dice 53][move 13/8 9/6] [precomment]It should be a gentle stroll home for GNU from here, although the fact that I've got two on the bar might work against it if it has to expose a home-table blot. [/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 53 (+0.171%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply 13/5 MWC: 66.46% 82.1% 65.9% 13.2% - 17.9% 0.2% 0.0% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 13/10 9/4 MWC: 66.34% ( -0.12%) 81.6% 65.5% 12.6% - 18.4% 0.2% 0.0% * 3. Cubeful 0-ply 13/8 9/6 MWC: 66.20% ( -0.26%) 80.7% 64.9% 12.7% - 19.3% 0.2% 0.0% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 13/8 6/3 MWC: 64.30% ( -2.16%) 73.2% 55.3% 8.1% - 26.8% 2.7% 0.0% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 9/4 6/3 MWC: 63.88% ( -2.58%) 71.9% 52.4% 6.6% - 28.1% 3.0% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 65.94% (Money: +1.404) 83.3% 63.6% 10.3% - 16.7% 0.1% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 66.28% 2. Double, take 75.10% ( 8.82%) 3. Double, pass 62.76% ( -3.52%) Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (28.5%) Alert: doubtful move (-0.256%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 17m4nAACYbxgAbA] [dice 52] [precomment]This could get boring...[/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 52 (-0.087%): * Cannot move [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 34.15% (Money: -1.387) 19.3% 0.2% 0.0% - 80.7% 64.9% 12.7% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 33.80% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 16.20%) 3. Double, take 24.96% ( -8.84%) Proper cube action: No double, take (35.3%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2mG8YAGzubicAAA] [dice 51][move 8/3 4/3] [precomment]Last roll before the bearing-off begins...[/precomment] [postcomment]GNU does have to be careful with the way it prepares its home table for bearing off, because I've got four pieces waiting to drop on any blots.
Here it's played only its third expert-level choice. Will that give me a chance later on?
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 51 (+0.066%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply 8/3 6/5 MWC: 66.35% 81.8% 65.5% 12.3% - 18.2% 0.2% 0.0% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 8/2 MWC: 65.89% ( -0.46%) 78.9% 64.1% 12.0% - 21.1% 0.3% 0.0% * 3. Cubeful 0-ply 8/3 4/3 MWC: 65.82% ( -0.53%) 78.9% 63.3% 11.5% - 21.1% 0.3% 0.0% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 8/3 5/4 MWC: 64.40% ( -1.94%) 73.5% 55.2% 8.2% - 26.5% 1.6% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 65.42% (Money: +1.326) 80.4% 61.4% 10.5% - 19.6% 0.0% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 65.82% 2. Double, take 73.80% ( 7.98%) 3. Double, pass 62.76% ( -3.06%) Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (27.7%) Alert: bad move (-0.526%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 17tsOAACYbxgAbA] [dice 15][move bar/24] [precomment]Another piece back on! Joy![/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 15 (+0.090%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/24 MWC: 35.16% 24.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 76.0% 55.5% 8.7% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 34.57% (Money: -1.324) 21.1% 0.3% 0.0% - 78.9% 63.3% 11.5% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 34.18% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 15.82%) 3. Double, take 25.88% ( -8.30%) Proper cube action: No double, take (34.4%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2mG8YAFzu2w4AAA] [dice 53][move 5/2 5/off] [precomment]This isn't bad for me (although a double 6 would have been even better). GNU will have to open its 5-point, which will help me to get back on, and escape those back pieces.[/precomment] [postcomment]Everything's relative, of course - the absolute position is that GNU's got two off and I've still got one on the bar. Who am I kidding?
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 53 (-0.230%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 5/2 5/off MWC: 65.11% 76.9% 58.1% 8.6% - 23.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 5/off 3/off MWC: 63.93% ( -1.18%) 70.7% 49.9% 9.2% - 29.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 6/3 5/off MWC: 63.41% ( -1.71%) 67.9% 48.3% 7.2% - 32.1% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 64.31% (Money: +1.161) 76.0% 55.5% 8.7% - 24.0% 0.0% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 64.84% 2. Double, take 71.18% ( 6.34%) 3. Double, pass 62.76% ( -2.08%) Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (24.7%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 13jcHAADMNwwALg] [dice 53][move bar/17] [precomment]GNU's opened 5-point has paid off for me straight away - great![/precomment] [postcomment]There might just be a game in it now, if I can close my home table then hit GNU late. Of course there's the small matter of a 114-pip gap, but we'll worry about that later.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 53 (+0.204%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/20 6/3 MWC: 35.47% 25.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 74.2% 54.4% 7.9% * 2. Cubeful 0-ply bar/17 MWC: 35.39% ( -0.09%) 24.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 76.0% 54.2% 5.9% 3. Cubeful 0-ply bar/20 11/8 MWC: 35.20% ( -0.27%) 23.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 76.1% 55.5% 7.7% 4. Cubeful 0-ply bar/20 7/4 MWC: 35.14% ( -0.33%) 23.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 76.7% 55.6% 7.3% 5. Cubeful 0-ply bar/20 4/1 MWC: 34.91% ( -0.57%) 22.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 77.7% 57.3% 7.6% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 35.38% (Money: -1.206) 23.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 76.9% 58.1% 8.6% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 34.89% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 15.11%) 3. Double, take 27.36% ( -7.52%) Proper cube action: No double, take (33.2%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2mG8YCDjeNwcAAA] [dice 54][move 6/2] [precomment]OK, 5 won't go at all, which leaves 4/off and a blot, or 6/2 and miss taking anything off this roll. Which will it be?[/precomment] [postcomment]Quite right. Why take chances when you're this far ahead?
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 54 (-0.385%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 6/2 MWC: 64.64% 76.5% 54.4% 5.0% - 23.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 4/off MWC: 62.97% ( -1.67%) 67.3% 43.7% 4.9% - 32.7% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 64.04% (Money: +1.121) 76.0% 54.2% 5.9% - 24.0% 0.0% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 64.61% 2. Double, take 70.61% ( 6.00%) 3. Double, pass 62.76% ( -1.85%) Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (23.6%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1vm8GAADMNwwEHA] [dice 11][move 6/4 6/5(2)] [precomment]I know what I need to do here...[/precomment] [postcomment]... and that's close my home table up as soon as possible. At least I made another point with this one.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 11 (+0.028%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 6/4 6/5(2) MWC: 35.62% 25.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 74.3% 54.0% 5.5% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 6/5(2) 4/3(2) MWC: 35.58% ( -0.03%) 25.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 74.2% 54.7% 5.6% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 17/16 6/5(3) MWC: 35.55% ( -0.07%) 25.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 74.5% 54.4% 5.8% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 17/15 6/5(2) MWC: 35.51% ( -0.10%) 25.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 74.7% 54.5% 5.9% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 7/5 6/5(2) MWC: 35.51% ( -0.10%) 25.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 74.8% 54.3% 6.1% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 35.93% (Money: -1.125) 23.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 76.5% 54.4% 5.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 35.36% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 14.64%) 3. Double, take 28.12% ( -7.25%) Proper cube action: No double, take (33.1%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2uG0YCDi+bwYAAA] [dice 64][move 6/2 6/off] [precomment]Another sub-optimal roll for GNU. There are two possibilities, one safe, the other completely crazy. I wonder which it'll choose.[/precomment] [postcomment]That's just one piece off from four dice for GNU. Is fate turning my way?
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 64 (+1.364%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 6/2 6/off MWC: 66.50% 84.4% 67.4% 7.5% - 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 6/off 4/off MWC: 58.95% ( -7.54%) 49.5% 33.5% 2.9% - 50.5% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 63.78% (Money: +1.081) 74.3% 54.0% 5.5% - 25.7% 0.0% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 64.38% 2. Double, take 69.93% ( 5.55%) 3. Double, pass 62.76% ( -1.62%) Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (22.6%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1ft8AAABuGwYCDg] [dice 52][move 24/17] [precomment]Lots of decent choices here, but something tells me to escape that third back piece, so I can use it on the other side of the board.[/precomment] [postcomment]Something told me wrong there - I should have covered my 2-point, making my home table a difficult one for GNU from now on.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 52 (-0.055%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply 7/2 4/2 MWC: 34.19% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 80.5% 63.8% 7.5% * 2. Cubeful 0-ply 24/17 MWC: 34.18% ( -0.00%) 18.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 81.2% 63.7% 6.2% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 24/19 17/15 MWC: 34.16% ( -0.03%) 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 81.4% 63.4% 6.5% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 17/10 MWC: 34.08% ( -0.11%) 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 81.9% 62.8% 7.6% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 24/19 7/5 MWC: 34.06% ( -0.12%) 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 82.1% 63.6% 6.7% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 33.82% (Money: -1.437) 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 84.4% 67.4% 7.5% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 33.50% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 16.50%) 3. Double, take 23.84% ( -9.66%) Proper cube action: No double, take (36.9%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2uG0YGDB+3wAAAA] [dice 33][move 3/off(4)] [precomment]A no-choices roll. [/precomment] [postcomment]GNU had to play 3/off(4), and now I've got a blot to aim at. Shame I didn't cover that fourth point of mine last time, isn't it?
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 33 (-3.208%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 3/off(4) MWC: 63.83% 69.2% 52.2% 8.2% - 30.8% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 65.42% (Money: +1.324) 81.2% 63.7% 6.2% - 18.8% 0.0% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 65.82% 2. Double, take 73.80% ( 7.99%) 3. Double, pass 62.76% ( -3.05%) Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (27.7%) Alert: unlucky roll! (-3.208%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1fg0AAOC2YWDAAA] [dice 34][move 17/10] [precomment]Missed! You don't get many chances in the back game, and that's one of them gone.[/precomment] [postcomment]Oh well, back to the business of building my home table...
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 34 (-3.644%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply 17/13 11/8 MWC: 34.12% 19.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 80.4% 64.4% 8.2% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 17/14 17/13 MWC: 34.07% ( -0.04%) 19.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 80.6% 64.8% 8.1% * 3. Cubeful 0-ply 17/10 MWC: 34.04% ( -0.07%) 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 80.7% 65.0% 8.2% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 17/14 11/7 MWC: 34.04% ( -0.07%) 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 80.7% 65.1% 8.0% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 17/13 4/1 MWC: 34.04% ( -0.07%) 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 80.5% 64.8% 8.7% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 36.83% (Money: -0.988) 30.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 69.2% 52.2% 8.2% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 36.17% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 13.83%) 3. Double, take 30.55% ( -5.62%) Proper cube action: No double, take (28.9%) Alert: unlucky roll! (-3.644%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2uG00EDB+DQAAAA] [dice 16][move 4/3 4/off] [precomment]Danger over for GNU.[/precomment] [postcomment]This is probably it for me now - GNU's got 8 pieces left, neatly stacked up next to my back-pieces. I can't see it having any trouble finishing things off from here.
Perhaps I should be thinking about saving the backgammon.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 16 (+2.097%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 4/3 4/off MWC: 68.43% 90.9% 79.4% 13.4% - 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 4/off 3/2 MWC: 64.50% ( -3.93%) 74.0% 54.8% 7.4% - 26.0% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 65.58% (Money: +1.346) 80.7% 65.0% 8.2% - 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 65.96% 2. Double, take 74.08% ( 8.13%) 3. Double, pass 62.76% ( -3.19%) Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (28.2%) Alert: lucky roll! (+2.097%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1fgMAAHDbaCBgAA] [dice 14][move 17/12] [precomment]A big double here and I've had made a run for it. As it is, I don't fancy leaving one stranded on the 24-point just yet.[/precomment] [postcomment]An astonishingly bad choice, by GNU Expert's estimation. Still, I doubt if it'll make much difference now.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 14 (-0.015%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply 10/6 4/3 MWC: 32.32% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 89.0% 73.4% 11.8% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 17/13 11/10 MWC: 32.32% ( -0.00%) 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 88.6% 74.0% 11.8% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 17/13 10/9 MWC: 32.31% ( -0.00%) 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 88.8% 74.2% 11.3% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 11/7 10/9 MWC: 32.30% ( -0.01%) 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 88.8% 74.3% 11.5% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 7/3 4/3 MWC: 32.30% ( -0.02%) 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 89.2% 73.5% 11.6% * 13. Cubeful 0-ply 17/12 MWC: 32.22% ( -0.10%) 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 89.1% 74.9% 11.5% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 31.72% (Money: -1.747) 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 90.9% 79.4% 13.4% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 31.57% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 18.43%) 3. Double, take 19.37% (-12.20%) Proper cube action: No double, take (39.8%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2uG20ADB+AwAAAA] [dice 22][move 2/off(4)] [precomment]That's OK, dice - shorten the agony![/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 22 (+1.889%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 2/off(4) MWC: 70.65% 97.3% 84.9% 30.7% - 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 67.59% (Money: +1.646) 89.1% 74.9% 11.5% - 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 67.78% 2. Double, take 78.93% ( 11.15%) 3. Double, pass 62.76% ( -5.02%) Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (31.0%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1NgAAALeNFgAGAA] [dice 54][move 24/15] [precomment]Now it is time to get out and save the backgammon.[/precomment] [postcomment]A double 3 or greater for GNU next time, and I won't make it. Fingers crossed...
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 54 (+0.016%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 24/15 MWC: 29.92% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 95.2% 85.9% 24.6% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 24/19 11/7 MWC: 29.43% ( -0.49%) 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 93.3% 84.3% 37.6% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 12/8 11/6 MWC: 29.36% ( -0.56%) 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 91.6% 79.1% 47.5% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 24/20 12/7 MWC: 29.35% ( -0.58%) 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 93.4% 83.7% 39.3% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 24/20 11/6 MWC: 29.33% ( -0.59%) 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 93.4% 84.0% 39.3% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 29.38% (Money: -2.103) 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 97.3% 84.9% 30.7% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 29.35% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 20.65%) 3. Double, take 13.87% (-15.47%) Proper cube action: No double, take (42.8%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2uG20CCA2AAAAAA] [dice 25][move 3/1* 3/off] [precomment]Drat! If hadn't moved out last time, GNU would now have to leave 2 blots! Still, it'll have to leave one.[/precomment] [postcomment]Good choice by GNU - especially if I roll a 3 or more next time. Then it really will be all over.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 25 (-3.290%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 3/1* 3/off MWC: 67.07% 91.5% 68.6% 2.9% - 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 3/off 2/off MWC: 65.09% ( -1.98%) 86.9% 43.7% 5.7% - 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 70.02% (Money: +2.008) 95.2% 85.9% 24.6% - 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 70.08% 2. Double, take 84.64% ( 14.56%) 3. Double, pass 62.76% ( -7.31%) Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (33.4%) Alert: unlucky roll! (-3.290%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1DQAAgNtGiwAEAA] [dice 21][move bar/24* 11/9] [precomment]A hit! A bit late, perhaps, but a hit nevertheless.[/precomment] [postcomment]I have, at least, learned enough to leave the 24-pointer in place, rather than escape it.
It's still overwhelmingly GNU's game, although I have got my home table half-closed, with a good few builders in the outfield. I could at least cause him some irritation for a few moves.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 21 (+7.916%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/24* 11/9 MWC: 41.06% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 58.0% 9.6% 3.5% 2. Cubeful 0-ply bar/24* 15/13 MWC: 40.84% ( -0.22%) 41.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 58.8% 10.8% 3.4% 3. Cubeful 0-ply bar/24* 10/8 MWC: 40.71% ( -0.35%) 41.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 59.0% 11.4% 3.9% 4. Cubeful 0-ply bar/24* 12/10 MWC: 40.22% ( -0.84%) 39.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 60.9% 13.1% 3.8% 5. Cubeful 0-ply bar/24* 4/2 MWC: 40.21% ( -0.86%) 39.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 60.5% 12.5% 5.6% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 33.13% (Money: -1.544) 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 91.5% 68.6% 2.9% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 32.93% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 17.07%) 3. Double, take 21.98% (-10.95%) Proper cube action: No double, take (39.1%) Alert: very lucky roll! (+7.916%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2uG2qCCAGAAAEAA] [dice 21][move bar/22] [precomment]Straight back on (shame!), and of course GNU wants out of there..[/precomment] [postcomment]It's not to be though, and with that four-point blockade and the other builders, I might just be able to keep GNU in there for a while.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 21 (+0.193%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/22 MWC: 61.32% 70.7% 9.4% 2.9% - 29.3% 0.0% 0.0% 2. Cubeful 0-ply bar/23 2/1* MWC: 58.16% ( -3.16%) 57.0% 4.0% 1.5% - 43.0% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 58.34% (Money: +0.292) 58.0% 9.6% 3.5% - 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 58.94% 2. Double, pass 62.76% ( 3.83%) 3. Double, take 58.25% ( -0.68%) Proper cube action: No double, take (15.1%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1BgCAgNumigACAA] [dice 42][move 9/3*] [precomment]A tricky choice - extend the blockade with [demo]12/8 10/8[/demo], or hit GNU again with [demo]9/3[/demo]?[/precomment] [postcomment]I chose this one all by myself (honest!). Gut instinct told me to keep hitting and keep building my home table, and 9/3 did both.
The risk is in the blot, of course, but GNU's table is wide open now, so I'd probably get straight back on, and perhaps even secure my 24-point.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 42 (-0.201%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 9/3* MWC: 40.28% 40.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 59.7% 12.8% 6.4% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 12/8 10/8 MWC: 40.18% ( -0.10%) 42.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 58.0% 17.8% 7.2% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 12/8 11/9 MWC: 39.91% ( -0.36%) 40.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 59.2% 17.5% 7.0% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 11/9 10/6 MWC: 39.77% ( -0.50%) 40.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 60.0% 17.6% 5.7% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 15/9 MWC: 39.67% ( -0.60%) 39.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 60.2% 17.5% 6.2% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 40.10% (Money: -0.537) 29.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 70.7% 9.4% 2.9% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 38.68% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 11.32%) 3. Double, take 33.93% ( -4.75%) Proper cube action: No double, take (29.6%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2dNuoCCAGAAAEAA] [dice 16][move bar/24] [precomment]Well that's one roll survived![/precomment] [postcomment]The fact that GNU got back on doesn't really matter - what counts is that he didn't get past my blockade. Now, if I can make another point in my home table next time, I can turn the screw a bit tighter.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 16 (-0.683%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/24 MWC: 60.30% 66.9% 6.1% 2.4% - 33.1% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 58.98% (Money: +0.387) 59.7% 12.8% 6.4% - 40.3% 0.0% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 59.72% 2. Double, pass 62.76% ( 3.04%) 3. Double, take 59.61% ( -0.12%) Proper cube action: No double, take (3.7%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1BgAAQreNigACAA] [dice 56][move 24/13] [precomment]Unlucky! Plenty of rolls would have given me another home-table point (a 1 and anything else, 4 3 for [demo]10/6 6/3[/demo], etc), but it didn't happen. I can't move the 3-point piece to safety, either.
Instead, I've got two choices - keep building my outfield by bringing my 15-pointer down, or escape my 24-point piece.[/precomment] [postcomment]Well, GNU says I was wrong, but that gut feeling told me to get the 24-pointer out, partly to avoid a hit from GNU, but mainly to bring in more ammunition for keeping GNU's piece locked into (and eventually out of) my home table.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 56 (-1.673%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply 15/9 12/7 MWC: 39.84% 39.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 60.6% 14.7% 6.5% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 15/9 10/5 MWC: 39.62% ( -0.21%) 38.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 61.2% 14.8% 6.5% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 15/9 11/6 MWC: 39.56% ( -0.28%) 38.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 61.6% 14.1% 6.6% * 4. Cubeful 0-ply 24/13 MWC: 39.40% ( -0.44%) 35.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 64.1% 11.8% 3.9% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 24/19 15/9 MWC: 39.36% ( -0.48%) 36.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 63.6% 12.4% 4.8% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 40.85% (Money: -0.424) 33.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 66.9% 6.1% 2.4% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 39.70% 2. Double, pass 50.00% ( 10.30%) 3. Double, take 35.40% ( -4.30%) Proper cube action: No double, take (29.4%) Alert: doubtful move (-0.439%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2dNuoEgAGAAACAA] [command double 2] [precomment]This might look like a challenge from GNU, but I take it as an acknowledgement that my position has improved.
A few rolls ago I would have passed the cube and forfeited a 1-point game, but then I was facing a certain gammon and possible backgammon. Now I think I have a real chance of saving the gammon, and an outside chance of winning, if I can lock GNU out with a prime, then have some luck during my bearing-off.[/precomment] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 59.30% (Money: +0.439) 64.1% 11.8% 3.9% - 35.9% 0.0% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. Double, take 60.60% 2. Double, pass 62.76% ( 2.16%) 3. No double 60.31% ( -0.29%) Proper cube action: Double, take [/analysecube][/play] [play][player2] [posID 2dNuoEgAGAAACAA] [command take 2] [precomment]You want me to take the cube, GNU? Fine![/precomment][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2dNuoEgAGAAACAA22] [dice 25][move 24/22*/17] [precomment]Trouble! Not many rolls would have been this good for GNU, but this was certainly one of them.[/precomment] [postcomment]OK, things look rather different now. Perhaps I should have passed that cube after all!
On the other hand, if I can get back on next roll (pretty likely), then I've got four direct shots at GNU with my other die. It may not be over yet.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 25 (+4.042%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 24/22*/17 MWC: 66.60% 78.1% 18.1% 7.5% - 21.9% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1BgAEgNtGlQAEAA22] [dice 64][move bar/19 12/8*] [precomment]This'll do nicely, thank you![/precomment] [postcomment]That's put GNU back inside the blockade again, which is where I need it to be. I'm still in this.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 64 (+1.586%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/19 12/8* MWC: 40.59% 38.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 61.9% 9.5% 2.8% 2. Cubeful 0-ply bar/19 15/11 MWC: 24.30% (-16.29%) 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 86.1% 56.0% 14.8% 3. Cubeful 0-ply bar/21 12/6 MWC: 23.90% (-16.69%) 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.2% 55.2% 20.3% 4. Cubeful 0-ply bar/15 MWC: 23.57% (-17.02%) 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 88.8% 58.4% 11.1% 5. Cubeful 0-ply bar/21 13/7 MWC: 23.52% (-17.08%) 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.3% 56.6% 21.3% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 32.05% (Money: -0.817) 21.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 78.1% 18.1% 7.5% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 33.40% 2. Double, pass 56.83% ( 23.43%) 3. Double, take 21.39% (-12.00%) Proper cube action: No redouble, take (33.9%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2uG0pCQEGAAAEAA22] [dice 16][move bar/24] [precomment]4 6 would have been nice (for me), but at least it wasn't 3 5![/precomment] [postcomment]OK, GNU, you stay there while I bring up reinforcements!
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 16 (-1.011%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/24 MWC: 62.06% 71.2% 7.3% 1.8% - 28.8% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1BgAAgtuWkhAAAA22] [dice 22][move 13/9 11/9 10/8] [precomment]It'll take me a while to work this one out, but a double 2 right now just has to be good...[/precomment] [postcomment]... and so it is. I've got a 6-point prime, which means GNU can't escape. I can bring my other two pieces round at my leisure, then work out how to do something really nasty with them!
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 22 (+0.650%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 13/9 11/9 10/8 MWC: 42.22% 39.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 60.4% 2.8% 0.5% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 15/9 10/8 MWC: 41.92% ( -0.30%) 40.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 59.9% 5.6% 1.4% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 19/17 13/9 10/8 MWC: 41.59% ( -0.63%) 39.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 60.7% 6.2% 1.2% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 19/15 11/9 10/8 MWC: 41.46% ( -0.75%) 39.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 60.9% 6.8% 1.2% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 19/13 10/8 MWC: 41.34% ( -0.88%) 38.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 61.3% 6.9% 1.1% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 36.34% (Money: -0.515) 28.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 71.2% 7.3% 1.8% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 37.94% 2. Double, pass 56.83% ( 18.88%) 3. Double, take 26.24% (-11.70%) Proper cube action: No redouble, take (38.3%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2uG0bCAEGAAACAA22] [dice 63] [precomment]In effect, having GNU stuck behind the prime is as good as having it stuck on the bar. Apart from a couple of pips in its home table, it can't make any real progress.
[/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 63 (+0.463%): * Cannot move [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1BgAAgtu2gRAAAA22] [dice 52][move 19/12] [precomment]Bring those back-markers round, that's what I say![/precomment] [postcomment]GNU Expert's top two choices both involved leaving a blot on 2. At first glance I thought 'typical GNU, taking chances when safe play would be better'. But on closer examination I can see that it would have been perfectly safe.
Even if GNU had hit me, it would still have been trapped behind my prime, while I would probably have come straight back on then come back round, unchallenged, to keep attacking.
On the other hand, if things had gone my way, I'd have made another home-table point, and got nearer to the stage where I could hit GNU and leave it stranded against a home-table prime.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 52 (-0.036%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply 15/10 4/2 MWC: 42.14% 39.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 60.6% 2.7% 0.7% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 19/14 4/2 MWC: 42.10% ( -0.04%) 39.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 60.7% 3.0% 0.6% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 19/14 15/13 MWC: 42.09% ( -0.05%) 38.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 61.1% 2.3% 0.3% * 4. Cubeful 0-ply 19/12 MWC: 42.00% ( -0.15%) 38.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 61.4% 2.3% 0.3% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 19/17 15/10 MWC: 41.84% ( -0.30%) 38.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 61.8% 2.4% 0.3% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 38.25% (Money: -0.376) 34.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 65.8% 4.7% 1.3% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 40.13% 2. Double, pass 56.83% ( 16.70%) 3. Double, take 29.79% (-10.34%) Proper cube action: No redouble, take (38.2%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2uG0bEQAGAAACAA22] [dice 11][move 24/22 2/1(2)] [precomment]A no-brainer for GNU here, with only one set of moves possible.[/precomment] [postcomment]And that's it - GNU now can't move at all. Let's see if I can make something out of the situation.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 11 (+1.293%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 24/22 2/1(2) MWC: 61.21% 70.9% 2.9% 0.8% - 29.1% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1AwCAgNu2EQEAAA22] [dice 56][move 9/3* 8/3] [precomment]Plenty of options, but they boil down to two choices - hit or build?[/precomment] [postcomment]Now I'm the one who's being reckless. GNU advised to build in the outfield, but I've gone for the hit, reducing my blockade to a jumpable 5 points, and leaving two blots on the far side of it. Fingers crossed!
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 56 (-0.177%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply 15/9 12/7 MWC: 34.28% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 84.9% 3.2% 0.4% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 15/10 12/6 MWC: 34.15% ( -0.13%) 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.1% 3.6% 0.4% * 3. Cubeful 0-ply 9/3* 8/3 MWC: 34.09% ( -0.19%) 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 84.8% 4.4% 0.8% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 15/4 MWC: 33.72% ( -0.56%) 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 86.3% 3.9% 0.4% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 12/1 MWC: 33.55% ( -0.73%) 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.9% 5.9% 0.6% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 37.22% (Money: -0.455) 29.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 70.9% 2.9% 0.8% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 38.79% 2. Double, pass 56.83% ( 18.04%) 3. Double, take 26.69% (-12.10%) Proper cube action: No redouble, take (40.1%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 27LYVEQADAAAEAA22] [dice 26][move bar/17*] [precomment]Oh no![/precomment] [postcomment]It always happens to me! 2 6 was the only roll that would have let GNU escape and hit - so of course that's what it rolled!
I've got two direct shots at GNU next time, but to be honest I think this may be the beginning of the end.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 26 (+4.335%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/17* MWC: 67.42% 82.3% 17.5% 4.1% - 17.7% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1AwAEwG6biAAEAA22] [dice 44][move bar/13 12/8*] [precomment]Another let-off![/precomment] [postcomment]GNU's back on the bar, and I'm back with a chance of re-establishing my prime.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 44 (+5.301%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/13 12/8* MWC: 34.12% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 84.6% 4.6% 0.8% 2. Cubeful 0-ply bar/17 15/11 12/8* MWC: 34.01% ( -0.11%) 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.0% 4.4% 0.8% 3. Cubeful 0-ply bar/21 15/11 12/8* 9/5 MWC: 33.70% ( -0.42%) 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.4% 5.5% 1.1% 4. Cubeful 0-ply bar/17 12/8* 9/5 MWC: 33.70% ( -0.42%) 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.1% 6.4% 0.9% 5. Cubeful 0-ply bar/21 15/7 12/8* MWC: 33.51% ( -0.61%) 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.7% 5.9% 1.2% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 31.53% (Money: -0.861) 17.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 82.3% 17.5% 4.1% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 32.58% 2. Double, pass 56.83% ( 24.24%) 3. Double, take 18.75% (-13.83%) Proper cube action: No redouble, take (36.3%) Alert: lucky roll! (+5.301%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 27LYVEgADAAAEAA22] [dice 42][move bar/23] [precomment]I don't think GNU has danced on the bar once in this game - getting straight back on against four covered points is lucky, but at least it wasn't 2 6![/precomment] [postcomment]Now I've got to close things up on the next roll.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 42 (-0.192%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/23 MWC: 62.69% 74.7% 4.5% 0.9% - 25.3% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1AwAAwW5bIQEAAA22] [dice 41][move 13/8] [precomment]I want my prime back, and this lets me have it.[/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 41 (+0.350%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply 15/11 9/8 MWC: 34.48% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.1% 1.5% 0.2% * 2. Cubeful 0-ply 13/8 MWC: 34.40% ( -0.07%) 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.4% 1.4% 0.2% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 7/2* MWC: 31.88% ( -2.60%) 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 86.1% 13.2% 4.5% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 15/14 9/5 MWC: 31.41% ( -3.07%) 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 86.2% 18.0% 2.9% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 13/12 9/5 MWC: 31.32% ( -3.16%) 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 86.4% 17.9% 3.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 35.94% (Money: -0.548) 25.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 74.7% 4.5% 0.9% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 37.31% 2. Double, pass 56.83% ( 19.51%) 3. Double, take 24.17% (-13.14%) Proper cube action: No redouble, take (40.2%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 27LYtEAADAAABAA22] [dice 32] [precomment]GNU's stuck for now, but sooner or later I'll have to break the prime and give it a chance to escape.[/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 32 (+0.000%): * Cannot move [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1AwAAwW7bAgEAAA22] [dice 13][move 15/11] [precomment]Not a great roll, but GNU's not going anywhere.[/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 13 (-0.019%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply 15/14 9/6 MWC: 34.39% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.1% 2.1% 0.2% * 2. Cubeful 0-ply 15/11 MWC: 34.37% ( -0.02%) 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.6% 1.3% 0.2% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 9/6 4/3 MWC: 34.36% ( -0.03%) 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.2% 2.1% 0.2% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 15/12 4/3 MWC: 34.34% ( -0.05%) 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.6% 1.3% 0.2% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 9/5 MWC: 34.33% ( -0.06%) 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.3% 2.1% 0.2% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 36.77% (Money: -0.489) 27.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 72.9% 2.5% 0.5% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 38.21% 2. Double, pass 56.83% ( 18.62%) 3. Double, take 25.40% (-12.82%) Proper cube action: No redouble, take (40.8%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 27LYtAQADAAABAA22] [dice 62] [analysemove] Rolled 62 (+0.000%): * Cannot move [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1AwAAwW7bEgAAAA22] [dice 26][move 8/2* 4/2] [precomment]Now this is a good roll for me![/precomment] [postcomment]GNU on the bar, five home-table points covered, and a six-point prime!
Nevertheless, it's best not to get over-optimistic. GNU Expert still rates my chances of winning this game at only 14.3%. But it's fun while it's lasting!
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 26 (+0.119%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 8/2* 4/2 MWC: 34.49% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.7% 0.3% 0.1% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 9/3 4/2* MWC: 34.45% ( -0.04%) 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.1% 1.6% 0.3% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 11/5 4/2* MWC: 34.44% ( -0.05%) 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.1% 1.6% 0.3% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 11/5 9/7 MWC: 34.18% ( -0.31%) 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 86.0% 1.7% 0.2% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 11/3 MWC: 34.01% ( -0.49%) 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 86.5% 1.7% 0.2% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 36.61% (Money: -0.501) 26.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 73.6% 2.4% 0.5% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 38.02% 2. Double, pass 56.83% ( 18.81%) 3. Double, take 25.00% (-13.02%) Proper cube action: No redouble, take (40.9%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2tm0rAQADAAAEAA22] [dice 35] [precomment]After its previous luck, I fully expected GNU to roll a 1 here. [/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 35 (+0.037%): * Cannot move [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1AwAAZNu2EgAAAA22] [dice 43][move 11/4] [precomment]My job now is to move in and close my home table completely before GNU can get back on.[/precomment] [postcomment]GNU doesn't think much of my choice, and on reflection neither do I. 9/6 8/4 would have been much better, although that gut feeling of mine still balks at the thought of 8/1.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 43 (+0.161%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply 8/1 MWC: 34.78% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 84.5% 0.9% 0.2% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 9/6 8/4 MWC: 34.42% ( -0.36%) 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.8% 0.6% 0.1% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 11/7 9/6 MWC: 34.38% ( -0.40%) 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.8% 0.6% 0.1% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 11/8 9/5 MWC: 34.35% ( -0.43%) 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 86.0% 0.5% 0.0% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 9/5 8/5 MWC: 34.32% ( -0.46%) 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 86.0% 0.8% 0.1% * 7. Cubeful 0-ply 11/4 MWC: 34.27% ( -0.51%) 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 86.3% 0.4% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 36.15% (Money: -0.536) 23.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 76.1% 1.3% 0.2% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 37.41% 2. Double, pass 56.83% ( 19.41%) 3. Double, take 23.46% (-13.95%) Proper cube action: No redouble, take (41.8%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2tttWAAADAAAEAA22] [dice 26] [precomment]Another breathing space for me.[/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 26 (-0.063%): * Cannot move [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1AwAAZLttBQAAAA22] [dice 61][move 8/1] [precomment]OK, I know what GNU would do, so I'm going to conquer my fears and do it...[/precomment] [postcomment]I know it makes sense - but let's see what actually happens.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 61 (+0.099%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 8/1 MWC: 34.51% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.3% 0.8% 0.1% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 9/3 7/6 MWC: 34.21% ( -0.30%) 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.5% 2.5% 0.3% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 7/6 7/1 MWC: 34.07% ( -0.44%) 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 84.8% 4.2% 1.0% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 9/3 4/3 MWC: 34.03% ( -0.48%) 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 87.0% 0.4% 0.0% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 8/2 7/6 MWC: 33.96% ( -0.55%) 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 86.2% 2.6% 0.3% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 35.80% (Money: -0.563) 22.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 77.2% 1.6% 0.2% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 37.00% 2. Double, pass 56.83% ( 19.83%) 3. Double, take 22.72% (-14.28%) Proper cube action: No redouble, take (41.9%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2bbdNAAADAAAEAA22] [dice 51][move bar/24*] [precomment]It's happened to me again! Every time I hit and leave a home-table blot, my opponent hits me straight back! [/precomment] [postcomment]Luckily this time it couldn't do much damage, which is why I risked it in the near-certainty that, with my luck, this would happen.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 51 (-0.117%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/24* MWC: 62.62% 75.4% 2.5% 0.7% - 24.6% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1AwAAYrttAgAEAA22] [dice 22][move bar/17] [precomment]GNU can't go anywhere, so even if I'd rolled 1 1, I'd just have had another go.[/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 22 (-0.132%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/19 9/7 MWC: 34.47% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.2% 1.4% 0.2% 2. Cubeful 0-ply bar/21 9/5 MWC: 34.42% ( -0.05%) 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.3% 1.5% 0.2% 3. Cubeful 0-ply bar/23 9/5 4/2 MWC: 34.30% ( -0.17%) 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.7% 1.4% 0.2% * 4. Cubeful 0-ply bar/17 MWC: 34.29% ( -0.18%) 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.9% 1.0% 0.1% 5. Cubeful 0-ply bar/19 4/2 MWC: 34.27% ( -0.20%) 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 86.0% 0.9% 0.1% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 36.06% (Money: -0.541) 24.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 75.4% 2.5% 0.7% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 37.38% 2. Double, pass 56.83% ( 19.45%) 3. Double, take 23.82% (-13.56%) Proper cube action: No redouble, take (41.1%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2ttsmQAADAAACAA22] [dice 26] [analysemove] Rolled 26 (+0.000%): * Cannot move [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1AwAAYrttAgQAAA22] [dice 36][move 7/1* 4/1] [precomment]The jackpot (for now, anyway)! [/precomment] [postcomment]That's GNU on the bar, and locked out of the game by a prime. GNU Expert's estimate of my winning chances has gone up to a whopping 16.3%.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 36 (+0.597%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 7/1* 4/1 MWC: 35.15% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 83.7% 0.2% 0.0% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 9/3 4/1* MWC: 34.82% ( -0.33%) 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 84.2% 1.1% 0.1% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 17/11 4/1* MWC: 34.78% ( -0.38%) 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 84.5% 0.9% 0.2% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 17/11 9/6 MWC: 34.08% ( -1.07%) 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 86.5% 1.2% 0.1% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 17/14 9/3 MWC: 34.01% ( -1.14%) 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 86.8% 1.1% 0.1% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 36.60% (Money: -0.503) 26.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 73.9% 2.1% 0.3% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 37.98% 2. Double, pass 56.83% ( 18.85%) 3. Double, take 24.80% (-13.19%) Proper cube action: No redouble, take (41.2%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 227YlQAADAAAEAA22] [dice 25] [analysemove] Rolled 25 (+0.000%): * Cannot move [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1AwAAtG1bAgQAAA22] [dice 43][move 17/10] [precomment]I've got to build my home table carefully. In practice GNU is probably still going to win, but I can make it as hard as I can for it.[/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 43 (-0.118%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply 9/6 7/3 MWC: 35.25% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 83.3% 0.3% 0.0% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 17/13 9/6 MWC: 35.22% ( -0.04%) 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 83.5% 0.2% 0.0% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 9/5 7/4 MWC: 35.17% ( -0.08%) 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 83.6% 0.2% 0.0% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 17/14 9/5 MWC: 35.14% ( -0.12%) 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 83.7% 0.2% 0.0% * 5. Cubeful 0-ply 17/10 MWC: 35.08% ( -0.18%) 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 83.9% 0.1% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 36.00% (Money: -0.548) 23.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 76.4% 1.8% 0.1% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 37.25% 2. Double, pass 56.83% ( 19.58%) 3. Double, take 23.24% (-14.00%) Proper cube action: No redouble, take (41.7%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 227alAAADAAAEAA22] [dice 24] [analysemove] Rolled 24 (+0.000%): * Cannot move [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1AwAAtG1bCgAAAA22] [dice 42][move 10/6 7/5] [precomment]The aim right now is to get the most I can from the situation before I have to uncover a point and give GNU a chance to get back in. [/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 42 (+0.359%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 10/6 7/5 MWC: 35.77% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 81.8% 0.1% 0.0% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 9/5 7/5 MWC: 35.37% ( -0.40%) 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 83.0% 0.2% 0.0% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 10/8 9/5 MWC: 35.15% ( -0.62%) 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 83.7% 0.1% 0.0% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 10/6 9/7 MWC: 35.10% ( -0.67%) 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 83.9% 0.1% 0.0% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 10/4 MWC: 34.93% ( -0.84%) 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 84.4% 0.1% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 35.15% (Money: -0.611) 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 80.0% 1.1% 0.1% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 36.21% 2. Double, pass 56.83% ( 20.62%) 3. Double, take 21.02% (-15.19%) Proper cube action: No redouble, take (42.4%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 223ZHAAADAAAEAA22] [dice 62] [analysemove] Rolled 62 (+0.000%): * Cannot move [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1AwAAtG13BAAAAA22] [dice 34][move 9/2] [precomment]I'm not ready to uncover anything yet![/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 34 (-0.040%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 9/2 MWC: 35.65% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 82.2% 0.1% 0.0% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 9/6 5/1 MWC: 35.13% ( -0.52%) 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 83.8% 0.1% 0.0% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 9/5 6/3 MWC: 34.99% ( -0.66%) 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 84.2% 0.1% 0.0% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 6/2 5/2 MWC: 34.56% ( -1.09%) 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.6% 0.1% 0.0% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 6/3 5/1 MWC: 34.32% ( -1.33%) 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 86.3% 0.1% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 35.40% (Money: -0.593) 20.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 79.3% 0.6% 0.1% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 36.48% 2. Double, pass 56.83% ( 20.34%) 3. Double, take 21.47% (-15.01%) Proper cube action: No redouble, take (42.5%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2u+0OAAADAAAEAA22] [dice 44] [analysemove] Rolled 44 (+0.000%): * Cannot move [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1AwAAtNvuAAAAAA22] [dice 15][move 5/off 2/1] [precomment]A bonus - a piece off without having to break the prime.[/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 15 (+0.133%): 1. Cubeful 0-ply 6/off MWC: 35.28% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 83.4% 0.0% 0.0% * 2. Cubeful 0-ply 5/off 2/1 MWC: 35.01% ( -0.27%) 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 84.2% 0.0% 0.0% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 5/off 1/off MWC: 34.93% ( -0.35%) 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 84.5% 0.0% 0.0% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 6/1 5/4 MWC: 34.21% ( -1.06%) 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 86.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 6/1 2/1 MWC: 34.19% ( -1.09%) 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 86.7% 0.1% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 34.83% (Money: -0.636) 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 81.5% 0.4% 0.1% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 35.80% 2. Double, pass 56.83% ( 21.03%) 3. Double, take 20.08% (-15.72%) Proper cube action: No redouble, take (42.8%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2t20HAIABAAACAA22] [dice 24] [analysemove] Rolled 24 (+0.000%): * Cannot move [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1AwAAdNt2AAAAAA22] [dice 15][move 6/off] [precomment]And another bonus...[/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 15 (+0.688%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 6/off MWC: 35.55% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 82.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 5/off 1/off MWC: 34.67% ( -0.88%) 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 5/4 5/off MWC: 33.73% ( -1.82%) 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 88.2% 0.0% 0.0% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 6/5 6/1 MWC: 33.13% ( -2.42%) 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 90.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 6/1 2/1 MWC: 32.82% ( -2.73%) 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 91.0% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 34.34% (Money: -0.673) 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 83.6% 0.0% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 35.19% 2. Double, pass 56.83% ( 21.64%) 3. Double, take 18.77% (-16.43%) Proper cube action: No redouble, take (43.2%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2t20DAMAAAAABAA22] [dice 62] [analysemove] Rolled 62 (+0.000%): * Cannot move [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1AwAAdNs2AAAAAA22] [dice 52][move 5/3 5/off] [precomment]OK, this time I'm going to have to open up a point. [/precomment] [postcomment]It's a shame it was the 5, because I'd rather have let GNU back in on 1 or 2. If it rolls 5 and a 2 or bigger now, the game will be over.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 52 (-0.985%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 5/3 5/off MWC: 34.43% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 86.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 5/off 2/off MWC: 33.86% ( -0.58%) 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 87.8% 0.0% 0.0% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 6/4 6/1 MWC: 33.81% ( -0.62%) 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 87.9% 0.0% 0.0% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 6/4 5/off MWC: 33.50% ( -0.93%) 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 88.9% 0.0% 0.0% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 6/1 2/off MWC: 33.16% ( -1.27%) 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 90.0% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 34.63% (Money: -0.651) 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 82.5% 0.0% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 35.54% 2. Double, pass 56.83% ( 21.29%) 3. Double, take 19.45% (-16.09%) Proper cube action: No redouble, take (43.0%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2t5sBAGAAAIAAAA22] [dice 63] [precomment]And I was fully expecting a 5![/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 63 (-1.929%): * Cannot move [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1AwAAdLsZAAAAAA22] [dice 32][move 3/off 2/off] [precomment]Not a good roll for me.[/precomment] [postcomment]I really can't remember why I played this, instead of 6/3 6/4. Perhaps this was one where I took advice from GNU!
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 32 (-0.885%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 3/off 2/off MWC: 35.12% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 83.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 6/4 3/off MWC: 34.74% ( -0.38%) 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 6/4 6/3 MWC: 34.18% ( -0.94%) 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 86.8% 0.0% 0.0% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 3/1 3/off MWC: 33.65% ( -1.46%) 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 88.4% 0.0% 0.0% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 4/2 3/off MWC: 33.64% ( -1.48%) 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 88.5% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 36.05% (Money: -0.545) 22.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 77.3% 0.0% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 37.24% 2. Double, pass 56.83% ( 19.59%) 3. Double, take 22.79% (-14.45%) Proper cube action: No redouble, take (42.4%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 212YAABgAACAAAA22] [dice 42][move bar/23*] [precomment]Ouch! I said I couldn't remember why I played that last move, didn't I?[/precomment] [postcomment]It it had been 2 5, then the game would be over. Even as it is, I think I've had my chips.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 42 (+2.737%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/23* MWC: 67.65% 92.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1AwAAcTYDACAAAA22] [dice 64][move bar/15] [precomment]Straightforward stuff - it's GNU's next roll that's going to make the difference.[/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 64 (+0.199%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/15 MWC: 32.33% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 92.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2. Cubeful 0-ply bar/19 6/2* MWC: 31.85% ( -0.48%) 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 94.1% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 31.96% (Money: -0.850) 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 92.5% 0.0% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 32.35% 2. Double, pass 56.83% ( 24.48%) 3. Double, take 16.73% (-15.62%) Proper cube action: No redouble, take (39.0%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2ZzOAABgAAAgAAA22] [dice 41] [precomment]Another let-off - thank you, dice! GNU's still the odds-on winner, but I'm still in there.[/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 41 (-1.683%): * Cannot move [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1AwAAcTYDCAAAAA22] [dice 32][move 15/10] [precomment]Hitting here would leave two blots, which is too risky, especially given GNU's hitting record.[/precomment] [postcomment]This one leaves an indirect shot, but GNU agrees that it's the best of the bunch.
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 32 (-0.618%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 15/10 MWC: 32.72% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 91.3% 0.0% 0.0% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 15/12 4/2* MWC: 32.54% ( -0.17%) 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 91.9% 0.0% 0.0% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 6/4 6/3 MWC: 32.35% ( -0.37%) 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 92.5% 0.0% 0.0% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 4/2* 4/1 MWC: 32.26% ( -0.46%) 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 92.8% 0.0% 0.0% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 15/12 6/4 MWC: 32.25% ( -0.47%) 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 92.8% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 33.43% (Money: -0.740) 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 87.0% 0.0% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 34.11% 2. Double, pass 56.83% ( 22.72%) 3. Double, take 17.71% (-16.40%) Proper cube action: No redouble, take (41.9%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2ZzMEABgAAAgAAA22] [dice 43][move 23/16] [precomment]Almost! But not quite![/precomment] [postcomment]It all rests on my next roll now. A 1 and I'm still in the game. If not, it's over. Still, 40 rolls ago who'd have thought that I'd save the gammon?
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 43 (+0.275%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 23/16 MWC: 67.46% 91.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1AwACcDZDAAAAAA22] [dice 31][move 10/9*/6] [precomment]Yes! Oh yes! Thank you, dice![/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 31 (+2.595%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 10/9*/6 MWC: 34.69% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 85.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 10/9* 6/3 MWC: 33.54% ( -1.15%) 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 88.8% 0.0% 0.0% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 10/9* 4/1 MWC: 32.99% ( -1.71%) 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 90.5% 0.0% 0.0% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 6/2 MWC: 30.48% ( -4.21%) 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 98.3% 0.0% 0.0% 5. Cubeful 0-ply 6/5 4/1 MWC: 30.46% ( -4.23%) 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 98.4% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 32.12% (Money: -0.838) 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 91.9% 0.0% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 32.54% 2. Double, pass 56.83% ( 24.28%) 3. Double, take 16.84% (-15.71%) Proper cube action: No redouble, take (39.3%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2Z3MAABgAACAAAA22] [dice 16] [precomment]Even better! If I was GNU, I'd be getting very annoyed by now![/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 16 (-2.550%): * Cannot move [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1AwAAdDYHAAAAAA22] [dice 51][move 6/off] [precomment]After all that euphoria, it's back to reality. I can't cover any more points, and from now on it's going to get progressively easier for GNU to get back on. [/precomment] [postcomment]Hang on though - check that pip count. Amazingly, I'm just two pips behind, with GNU on the bar and four points covered in my home table. Perhaps I'm in with a chance yet!
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 51 (+0.719%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 6/off MWC: 38.18% 25.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 74.3% 0.0% 0.0% 2. Cubeful 0-ply 6/1 4/3 MWC: 33.85% ( -4.32%) 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 87.8% 0.0% 0.0% 3. Cubeful 0-ply 6/5 6/1 MWC: 33.65% ( -4.53%) 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 88.5% 0.0% 0.0% 4. Cubeful 0-ply 6/1 3/2 MWC: 33.42% ( -4.76%) 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 89.2% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 36.76% (Money: -0.493) 25.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 74.6% 0.0% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 38.08% 2. Double, pass 56.83% ( 18.75%) 3. Double, take 24.45% (-13.64%) Proper cube action: No redouble, take (42.1%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2ZzMAAAwAABAAAA22] [dice 61] [precomment]The Gods of backgammon are smiling on me![/precomment] [analysemove] Rolled 61 (-3.021%): * Cannot move [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1AwAAdDYDAAAAAA22] [dice 55][move 6/1(2) 4/off(2)] [precomment] 6 6 would have been better, but I'm not complaining.[/precomment] [postcomment]And now, incredibly, I'm ahead on pip count (even if I am well behind on pieces off).
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 55 (+7.735%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply 6/1(2) 4/off(2) MWC: 49.04% 59.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 40.5% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 39.67% (Money: -0.276) 36.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 63.8% 0.0% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. No double 41.56% 2. Double, pass 56.83% ( 15.27%) 3. Double, take 31.28% (-10.28%) Proper cube action: No redouble, take (40.2%) Alert: lucky roll! (+7.735%) [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 2nwEAAAMAAAQAAA22] [dice 21][move bar/23] [precomment]And still my luck holds![/precomment] [postcomment]The 2 was good news for GNU, but the 1 must have it spitting feathers!
[/postcomment] [analysemove] Rolled 21 (-6.255%): * 1. Cubeful 0-ply bar/23 MWC: 43.17% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 81.4% 0.0% 0.0% [/analysemove][/play] [play][player2] [posID 1AwAA8RkAAAAAAA22] [command double 4] [precomment]This was GNU's suggestion, and since it isn't often wrong about these things, I took it.[/precomment] [analysecube] Cube analysis 0-ply cubeless MWC 51.81% (Money: +0.627) 81.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% Cubeful equities: 1. Double, pass 56.83% 2. Double, take 59.80% ( 2.97%) 3. No double 55.22% ( -1.60%) Proper cube action: Redouble, pass Paul wins 2 points [/analysecube][/play] [play][player1] [posID 1AwAA8RkAAAAAAA22] [command drop ] [precomment]And suddenly it's over - GNU passes, and I've won!
Would I have won anyway, if we'd played on to the bitter end? Probably - even though I had 7 pieces left to GNU's 3, I was 14 points ahead in the pip count, and a few small rolls would have seen GNU crawling home while I peeled pieces off my 1-point.
I played this position out against GNU 20 times just to see what happened. I won 16 of them, so it was an odds-on win. Certainly too odds-on for GNU to risk taking my cube.
As this game shows, in backgammon it really ain't over until the figures say it's mathematically impossible!
[/precomment][/play][gamestats] GNU Paul
Chequerplay statistics
Total moves 51 51
Unforced moves 23 42
Unmarked moves 0 0
Moves marked good 44 50
Moves marked doubtful 2 1
Moves marked bad 3 0
Moves marked very bad 2 0
Error rate (total) -0.876 ( -5.592%) -0.283 ( -2.628%)
Error rate (per move) -38 ( -0.243%) -7 ( -0.063%)
Chequerplay rating Awful! Expert
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky 1 1
Rolls marked lucky 5 2
Rolls unmarked 42 47
Rolls marked unlucky 3 1
Rolls marked very unlucky 0 0
Luck rate (total) +1.373 ( +6.852%) +1.440 (+18.790%)
Luck rate (per move) +27 ( +0.134%) +28 ( +0.368%)
Luck rating Good dice, man! Good dice, man!
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions 28 52
Close or actual cube decisions 23 3
Doubles 1 1
Takes 0 1
Passes 1 0
Missed doubles (below CP) 0 0
Missed doubles (above CP) 0 0
Wrong doubles (below DP) 0 0
Wrong doubles (above TG) 0 0
Wrong takes 0 0
Wrong passes 0 0
Error rate (total) +0.000 +0.000
Error rate (per cube decision) -0 -0
Cube decision rating Supernatural Supernatural
Overall statistics
Error rate (total) -0.876 ( -5.592%) -0.283 ( -2.628%)
Error rate (per decision) -19 ( -0.122%) -6 ( -0.058%)
Equiv. Snowie error rate -9 -3
Overall rating Casual player Expert
Actual result -13.04% +13.04%
Luck adjusted result -1.10% +1.10%
Statistics from player records:
Short-term Long-term Total Total
error rate error rate error rate luck
Name Cheq. Cube Cheq. Cube Cheq. Cube rate Games
GNU 0.000 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.004 -0.921 20
Paul 0.004 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.004 0.597 37
Output generated Sat Mar 19 18:34:31 2005
by GNU Backgammon 0.14-devel (Text Export version 1.68)
[/gamestats]